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SRX Research

HDB Mature estates buck the trend

Posted on 09 Mar 2017

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HDB Resale Prices decrease by 0.3% in Feb; Volume decreases by 8.5%.
 
Compared to a year ago, prices decreased 0.6%, led by a decline of 1.9% in non-mature estates. Mature estates buck the trend and increased by 1.1% in the same period.

Observations:

1. HDB resale prices decrease in February 2017. There was a decrease of 0.3% in HDB Resale prices in February 2017 compared to that of January 2017. The resale prices of HDB 4 Rooms, 5 Rooms and HDB Executive decreased by 0.2%, 0.5% and 1.7% respectively, while HDB 3 Rooms increased by 0.2%.

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According to the SRX Property Price Index for HDB Resale:

  • Year-on-year, prices have decreased by 0.6% from February 2016;
  • Prices have declined by 11.5% since the peak in April 2013;
  • No price revision for 0.3% decrease in Jan-2017; 
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According to the SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Resale:

  • In February 2017, HDB resale prices in mature estates increased by 0.4%, while non-mature estates decreased by 0.8%;
  • Year-on-year, prices in mature estates have increased by 1.1% from February 2016;
  • Year-on-year, prices in non-mature estates have decreased by 1.9% from February 2016;

2. Resale volume decreases in February 2017. According to HDB resale data compiled by SRX Property, 1,074 HDB resale flats were sold in February 2017, an 8.5% decrease from 1,174 transacted units in January 2017.

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  • Year-on-year, resale volume decreased by 10.9% compared to 1,205 units resold in February 2016.
  • Resale volume was down by 70.6% compared to its peak of 3,649 units in May 2010.

3. Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (T-O-X) is NEGATIVE 2000 in February 2017. According to SRX Property, the median T-O-X for HDB was NEGATIVE 2000 in February 2017. The median T-O-X for HDB measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.

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  • Overall Median T-O-X was NEGATIVE 2000 in February 2017, increased by $1,000 compared to the figure in January 2017;
  • Median T-O-X for HDB 3 Room, 4 Room, 5 Room and Executive flats in February 2017 were NEGATIVE $4,000, NEGATIVE $2,000, NEGATIVE $2,000 and POSITIVE $4,000 respectively.

4. Bedok posts the highest median T-O-X. For HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in February 2017, Bedok reported the highest median TOX of POSITIVE $10,000 followed by POSITIVE $4,000 in Clementi.

This means that majority of the buyers in these towns have purchased units above the computer-generated market value.

5. Among relatively active towns, Queenstown posts the most negative median T-O-X. Among HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in February 2017, the lowest median T-O-X was in Queenstown at NEGATIVE $12,500, followed by Ang Mo Kio at NEGATIVE $11,000.

This means that majority of the buyers in these towns have purchased units below the computer generated market value.

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