The market value in this study is based on the total X-value of all measurable HDB units, classified under Mature or Non-Mature estates. Two reference time points were taken to measure the loss: (a) April 2013 when the SRX Index for HDB Resale was at its peak; and (b)February 2015.
Data Collection
- The SRX database compiled all resale transactional data for unique HDB units with precise postal code and unit number. Around 130,000 unique HDB resale flats were found. The HDB Resale database does not provide full unit number details and hence was not used to supplement the sample size.
- The number of HDB units in this study makes up about 13% of the total stock of about 1.06 million HDB units in Singapore, per key statistics data from HDB in its 2013/14 Annual Report. The rest of the unaccounted units either do not have transactions, as they are still under the mandatory Minimum Occupation Period (MOP), or are still unsold after MOP.
Methodology
- The total market value is the sum of all X-values calculated for each of the HDB units.The sum of all X-value for HDBs is derived from the 130,000 unique HDB resale flats with precise address information collected;
- The retrospective X-value is calculated at two time points to measure the total market change - one at the height of the market for HDB (in April 2013), and one at the most recent month (February 2015);
- To learn more about the SRX Price Index used in this study, please download our White Paper;
- Market change is also calculated for Mature and Non-Mature estates respectively. The classification is defined by HDB here.
Conclusion
- Since the total market value was based on 13% of HDB's total stock, its drop of 6.59 billion significantly under reports the true decline in the entire HDB market. However, the sample size is sufficient enough to give analysts an understanding of the magnitude of the loss per unit and estimate the total market loss;
- Comparing to its peak in April 2013:
- Mature estates have a market value loss of $2,234,930,000, based on 54,902 units ($40,707.62 loss per unit).
- Non-Matures estates have a market value loss of $4,354,574,000, based on 74,602 units ($58,370.74 loss per unit).