October HDB resale price remains unchanged; October volume highest this year

October marks the highest transaction volume for HDB resale in 2015.  Transaction-over-X-Value (T-O-X) is positive for the first time since June.  Will this positive market sentiment last or is there more haze to come?  Read the data and decide.

1. HDB resale price stays flat in October. HDB resale price remains unchanged in October 2015 compared to September 2015. The resale prices of HDB 3 Room and Executive Flats increase by 0.7% and 0.9%, while the resale prices of 4 and 5 Room Flats decrease by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively.

According to the SRX Property Price Index for HDB Resale:

• Year-on-year, prices have decreased by 2.6% from October 2014;
• Prices have declined by 11.7% since the peak in April 2013;
• Price index in September 2015 remains unchanged.

According to the SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Resale:

• In October 2015, HDB resale price remains unchanged in mature estates and non-mature estates;
• Year-on-year, prices in mature estates have declined by 2.2% from October 2014;
• Year-on-year, prices in non-mature estates have declined 3.0% from October 2014;

2. Resale volume increases significantly. According to HDB resale data compiled by SRX Property, 1,745 HDB resale flats were sold in October 2015, a 16.0% increase from 1,504 transacted units in September 2015. This is the highest monthly volume in 2015 so far.

• Year-on-year, resale volume increases by 12.4% compared with 1,553 units resold in October 2014;
• Resale volume is down by 52.2% compared to its peak of 3,649 units in May 2010.

3. Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (T-O-X) is POSITIVE $1,000 in October. According to SRX Property, HDB resale market sentiment is POSITIVE $1,000 in October 2015. The median T-O-X for HDB measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.

• Overall Median T-O-X is POSITIVE $1,000 in October 2015, increases from NEGATIVE $1000 in September 2015;
• Both HDB 3 Room and 5 Room in October 2015 post a ZERO median T-O-X. 4 Room and Executive flats post a POSITIVE $1,000 and POSITIVE $11,000 median T-O-X respectively.

4. Bishan posts the highest median T-O-X. For HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in October 2015, Bishan reports the highest median TOX of $15,000 followed by $7,000 in Queenstown.

This means that majority of the buyers in these towns have purchased units above the computer-generated market value.

5. Among relatively active towns, Central Area posts the most negative median T-O-X. Among HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in October 2015, the lowest median T-O-X are in Central Area and Hougang at NEGATIVE $17,000 and NEGATIVE $5,500 respectively. 

This means that majority of the buyers in these towns have purchased units below the computer generated market value.