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SRX Research

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In the article "One in five condo owners sitting on paper losses" by SRX CEO, Sam Baker, we highlight the percentage of homes that will suffer paper losses should they sell their homes in August 2016. 

Over 250,000 Non-Landed Private Units were used in this study, making up around 80% of total number of NLP units in Singapore. These homes were grouped according to the districts they belong to and calculated for its respective current X-value (as of 17 August 2016). 

The X-value is then used to subtract the latest purchase price of the homes to determine the paper-loss or paper-gain. The number of homes with paper loss is divided over the total number of homes in the district to give the percentage of homes in the red.

Track the price of your property (and your neighbours!) and find out if your home is in the red by signing up for SRX Property Tracker here.
 
To know X-value's methodology, click here

A. Non-landed Private Residential Rental Market

1. Private rents decrease by 0.4% in July. According to SRX Property Price Index for Non-landed Private Residential Rentals, rents decreased by 0.4% in July 2016 compared to June 2016. Non-Landed Private Residential units rents in CCR and OCR decreased by 0.7% and 1.1%. RCR increased by 0.8% respectively.

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According to SRX Property Price Index for Non-landed Private Rentals:

  • Year-on-year, rents in July 2016 were down by 4.8% from July 2015. In individual sectors, CCR, RCR and OCR posted 1.6%, 7.0% and 6.3% year-on-year decrease in price, respectively.
  • Rents in July 2016 was 16.9% down compared to its peak in January 2013.
  • June’s change was revised from no change to 0.1% decrease.

2. Rental volume decreases by 5.0%. According to SRX Property, an estimated 4,100 Non-landed Private Residential units were rented in July 2016. This represented a 5.0% decrease from 4,316 units rented in June 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, rental volume in July 2016 was 3.4% lower than 4,243 units rented in July 2015.
B. HDB Rental Market

1. HDB rents increase by 0.5%. According to SRX Property Price Index for HDB Rentals, rents increased by 0.5% from June 2016 to July 2016. HDB 3 Rooms and HDB 4 Rooms increased by 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, HDB 5 Rooms and Executive rents posted a 0.8% and 0.4% decrease, respectively.

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According to SRX Property Price Index for HDB Rentals:

  • Year-on-year, rents in July 2016 were down by 3.8% from July 2015.
  • Rents in July 2016 were down 9.6% compared to its peak in August 2013.

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According to SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Rentals in Mature and Non-mature Estates:

  • Rents in Mature and Non-mature Estates increased by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively.
  • Year-on-year, rents of Mature Estates in July 2016 slipped 3.6% from July 2015.
  • Year-on-year, rents of Non-mature Estates in July 2016 dropped 4.1% from July 2015.

2. HDB rental volume decreases by 6.1%. According to SRX Property, an estimated 1,653 HDB flats were rented in July 2016, a 6.1% decrease from 1,760 units rented in June 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, rental volume in July 2016 decreased by 10.3% from July 2015.
1. Non-landed Private Residential Resale Prices decrease by 0.4% in July 2016. Non-landed Private Residential Resale prices decreased by 0.4% in July 2016 compared to June 2016. In individual sectors, CCR, RCR and OCR recorded a price decrease of 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.

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According to the SRX Non-landed Private Residential Price Index:

  • Year-on-year, prices in July 2016 increased by 0.1% from July 2015. In individual sectors, CCR and RCR posted a year-on-year price increase of 6.2% and 0.5%, respectively. OCR, however, recorded a year-on-year price decrease of 2.8%.
  • July 2016 prices were down by 6.6% from the recent peak in January 2014.
  • Price increase in June 2016 was revised from 0.5% to 0.4%.
2. Resale volume increases by 10.0%. According to Non-landed Private Residential Resale data compiled by SRX Property, an estimated 770 Non-landed Private Residential units were resold in July 2016. This is a 10.0% increase compared to 700 units resold in June 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, resale volume in July 2016 was 31.4% higher compared to 586 units resold in July 2015;
  • Resale volume was down by 62.4% compared to its peak of 2,050 units resold in April 2010.

 3. Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (TOX) decreases. The median T-O-X for Non-landed Private Residential measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.

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  • The median T-O-X in July 2016 is NEGATIVE $10,000. This is a $3,000 decrease compared to NEGATIVE $7,000 in June 2016.

 4. District 20 posts highest median T-O-X. For districts with more than 10 resale transactions in July 2016, District 20 (Bishan, Ang Mo Kio) posted the highest median T-O-X at POSITIVE $10,000.

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This means that a majority of the buyers in this district purchased units above the computer-generated market value.

5. Among relatively active districts, District 3 posts the most negative median T-O-X. District 3 (Queenstown, Tiong Bahru) posted a T-O-X of NEGATIVE $40,000.

This means that a majority of the buyers in these districts purchased units below the computer-generated market value.


 




Headline: HDB Resale Price increases by 0.7%; Volume decreases by 13.7%.

Observations:

  1. HDB resale prices increases in July 2016. HDB Resale prices increased 0.7% in July 2016 compared to June 2016. The resale prices of HDB 3 Room, 4 Room and HDB 5 Room Flats increased by 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. On the other hand, the resale prices of HDB Executive Flats decreased 0.4%.

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According to the SRX Property Price Index for HDB Resale:

  • Year-on-year, prices have increased by 0.8% from July 2015;
  • Prices have declined by 10.9% since the peak in April 2013;

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According to the SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Resale:

  • In July 2016, HDB resale prices of mature estates and non-mature estates increased by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively.
  • Year-on-year, prices in mature estates have increased by 1.1% from July 2015;
  • Year-on-year, prices in non-mature estates have increased by 0.4% from July 2015;

2. Resale volume decreases in July 2016. According to HDB resale data compiled by SRX Property, 1,573 HDB flats were resold in July 2016, a 13.7% decrease from 1,823 transacted units in June 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, resale volume increased by 1.4% compared to 1,552 units resold in July 2015.
  • Resale volume was down by 56.9% compared to its peak of 3,649 units in May 2010.
3. Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (T-O-X) is NEGATIVE $1,000 in July 2016. According to SRX Property, the median T-O-X for HDB was NEGATIVE $1,000 in July 2016The median T-O-X for HDB measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.

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  • Overall Median T-O-X was NEGATIVE $1,000 in July 2016, a decrease of $1,000 compared to June 2016;      
  •  Median T-O-X for HDB 3 Room, 4 Room, 5 Room and Executive flats in July 2016 were ZERO, NEGATIVE $2,000, NEGATIVE $1,000 and NEGATIVE $1,000 respectively.
4. Toa Payoh posts the highest median T-O-X. For HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in July 2016, Toa Payoh reported the highest median TOX of POSITIVE $25,500 followed by POSITIVE $4,000 in Clementi and Bukit Batok.

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This means that majority of the buyers in these towns have purchased units above the computer-generated market value.

5. Among relatively active towns, Punggol posts the most negative median T-O-X. Among HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in July 2016, the lowest median T-O-X was in Punggol at NEGATIVE $10,000, followed by Bukit Merah at NEGATIVE $8,000.

This means that majority of the buyers in these towns have purchased units below the computer generated market value.

A. Non-Landed Private Residential Rental Market

1. Private rents remain the same. According to SRX Property Price Index for Non-landed Private Residential Rentals remained the same in June 2016 compared to May 2016. Non-Landed Private Residential units rents in CCR and OCR decreased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively while RCR increased by 0.8%.

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According to SRX Property Price Index for Non-landed Private Rentals:

  • Year-on-year, rents in June 2016 were down by 4.8% from June 2015. In individual sectors, CCR, RCR and OCR posted 1.4%, 7.6% and 6.0% year-on-year decrease in price, respectively.
  • Rent in June 2016 was 16.4% down compared to its peak in January 2013.

2. Rental volume increase by 2.0%. According to SRX Property, an estimated 4,256 Non-landed Private Residential units were rented in June 2016. This represented a 2.0% increase from 4,172 units rented in May 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, rental volume in June 2016 was 7.9% higher than 3,946 units rented in June 2015.

 
B.HDB Rental Market

1. HDB rents decrease by 0.3% in June. 
According to SRX Property Price Index for HDB Rentals, rents decrease by 0.3% from May 2016 to June 2016. HDB 3 Rooms and HDB 4 Rooms decrease by 1.3% and 0.3% respectively. HDB 5 Rooms and Executive rents posted a 0.3% and 0.2% increase, respectively.
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According to SRX Property Price Index for HDB Rentals:

  • Year-on-year, rents in June 2016 were down by 4.3% from June 2015.
  • Rents in June 2016 were down 10.1% compared to its peak in August 2013.

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According to SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Rentals in Mature and Non-mature Estates:

  • Rents in Mature and Non-mature Estates decreased by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively.
  • Year-on-year, rents of Mature Estates in June 2016 slipped 4.0% from June 2015.
  • Year-on-year, rents of Non-mature Estates in June 2016 dropped 4.7% from June 2015.

2. HDB rental volume decreases by 0.5% in June. According to SRX Property, an estimated 1,826 HDB flats were rented in June 2016, a 0.5% decrease from 1,836 units rented in May 2016.
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  • Year-on-year, rental volume in June 2016 decreased by 0.3% from June 2015.
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