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SRX Research

A. Non-Landed Private Residential Rental Market

1. Private rents remain the same. According to SRX Property Price Index for Non-landed Private Residential Rentals remained the same in June 2016 compared to May 2016. Non-Landed Private Residential units rents in CCR and OCR decreased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively while RCR increased by 0.8%.

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According to SRX Property Price Index for Non-landed Private Rentals:

  • Year-on-year, rents in June 2016 were down by 4.8% from June 2015. In individual sectors, CCR, RCR and OCR posted 1.4%, 7.6% and 6.0% year-on-year decrease in price, respectively.
  • Rent in June 2016 was 16.4% down compared to its peak in January 2013.

2. Rental volume increase by 2.0%. According to SRX Property, an estimated 4,256 Non-landed Private Residential units were rented in June 2016. This represented a 2.0% increase from 4,172 units rented in May 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, rental volume in June 2016 was 7.9% higher than 3,946 units rented in June 2015.

 
B.HDB Rental Market

1. HDB rents decrease by 0.3% in June. 
According to SRX Property Price Index for HDB Rentals, rents decrease by 0.3% from May 2016 to June 2016. HDB 3 Rooms and HDB 4 Rooms decrease by 1.3% and 0.3% respectively. HDB 5 Rooms and Executive rents posted a 0.3% and 0.2% increase, respectively.
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According to SRX Property Price Index for HDB Rentals:

  • Year-on-year, rents in June 2016 were down by 4.3% from June 2015.
  • Rents in June 2016 were down 10.1% compared to its peak in August 2013.

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According to SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Rentals in Mature and Non-mature Estates:

  • Rents in Mature and Non-mature Estates decreased by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively.
  • Year-on-year, rents of Mature Estates in June 2016 slipped 4.0% from June 2015.
  • Year-on-year, rents of Non-mature Estates in June 2016 dropped 4.7% from June 2015.

2. HDB rental volume decreases by 0.5% in June. According to SRX Property, an estimated 1,826 HDB flats were rented in June 2016, a 0.5% decrease from 1,836 units rented in May 2016.
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  • Year-on-year, rental volume in June 2016 decreased by 0.3% from June 2015.
1. Non-landed Private Residential Resale Prices up by 0.5% in June 2016. Non-landed Private Residential Resale prices increased by 0.5% in June 2016 compared to May 2016. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly price increase.

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The price increase applies across the board. CCR, RCR and OCR recorded a price increase of 0.9%, 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

According to the SRX Non-landed Private Residential Price Index:

  • Year-on-year, prices in June 2016 increased by 1.1% from June 2015. In individual sectors, CCR posted a year-on-year price increase of 9.2%, while RCR and OCR recorded a year-on-year price decrease of 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively.
  • June 2016 prices were down by 5.9% from the recent peak in January 2014.
2. Resale volume decreases by 1.2% in June 2016. According to Non-landed Private Residential Resale data compiled by SRX Property, an estimated 754 Non-landed Private Residential units were resold in June 2016. This is a 1.2% decrease compared to 763 units resold in May 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, resale volume in June 2016 was 27.4% higher compared to 592 units resold in June 2015;
  • Resale volume was down by 63.2% compared to its peak of 2,050 units resold in April 2010.
3. Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (TOX) increases in June 2016. The median T-O-X for Non-landed Private Residential measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.

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  • The median T-O-X in May 2016 is NEGATIVE $7,000. This is a $1,000 increase compared to NEGATIVE $8,000 in May 2016;
  • This increase in median T-O-X marks the third consecutive monthly improvement.
4. District 12 posts highest median T-O-X. For districts with more than 10 resale transactions in June 2016, District 12 (Serangoon, Toa Payoh, Balestier) posted the highest median T-O-X at POSITIVE $30,000.

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This means that a majority of the buyers in this district purchased units above the computer-generated market value.


5. Among relatively active districts, District 18 posts the most negative median T-O-X. District 18 (Simei, Tampines, Pasir Ris) posted a T-O-X of NEGATIVE $22,000.

This means that a majority of the buyers in these districts purchased units below the computer-generated market value.

(New!) 6. Median days-on-market (DOM) for non-landed private properties was 137 days in 2016Q2. Quarter-on-quarter, median DOM was 14.5 days shorter compared to 151.5 days in 2016Q1.

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DOM represents the number of days a property has been listed on the market before it is transacted.

Important Correction to ST & BT Article on HDB - 8 Jul 2016

Posted on 09 Jul 2016

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Unfortunately, one of the analysts made several inaccurate statements about the technical aspects of SRX HDB indices versus that of HDB stat board in an ST story by Janice Heng and a BT story by Lee Meixian on 8 Jul 2016. 

Here is a link to ST Digital that shows the correction.
http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/hdb-resale-volume-stays-flat

Correction:-

While we respect Mr. Eugene Lim of ERA's expert analysis on property markets, he made two technical and factual errors in his assessment of SRX Property’s HDB data.  We would like to correct the record. 

First, contrary to Mr. Lim’s statement, SRX Property figures are based on the most real-time and comprehensive property transaction data available and do include do-it-yourself transactions in HDB.

Details: SRX price index for HDB sources data from public HDB transactions (https://services2.hdb.gov.sg/webapp/BB33RTIS/BB33PReslTrans.jsp) which contains DIY transactions not handled by agents.  

Second, SRX figures are based on monthly changes while HDB flash reports are based on quarterly changes. Mr Lim employed the wrong methodology to approximate the quarterly change from SRX’s monthly figures. This gave rise to the erroneous 0.4% quarterly drop that was reported.

Details: The HDB price index reflected a 0.1% increase in 2016Q2 over 2016Q1. A meaningful comparison with SRX price index would require one to compute the average of Quarter 1 (Jan - Mar) with the average of Quarter 2 (Apr - Jun). Unfortunately, Mr. Lim obtained the 0.4% drop by simply calculating the difference between Apr and Jun, neglecting the Jan - Mar periods.

The correct calculation using SRX's price index would show a 0.00% change between Quarter 1 (135.53) and Quarter 2 (135.33), after rounding to 2 decimal places.  

When one employs the right methodology for comparison, both HDB and SRX figures would be similar but not exact, since no conversion from a monthly methodology to that of a quarterly is perfect.

Moreover, HDB flash figures may not take into account all of June’s transactions while SRX’s figures do. Therefore, it would be more appropriate to convert SRX Property’s monthly figures to quarterly and compare to that of HDB after the latter releases its full report in a few weeks’ time. By following a monthly reporting, SRX figures are more real-time than that of HDB’s quarterly flash report.

Details: If we take the average of SRX's price index for HDB between Jan - Mar (Q1) and compare with the average of Apr - May (Q2, ignoring June as HDB might not have factored all of June's transactions in the Flash), SRX would have reflected a small 0.012% increase, similar to HDB's price index of a small 0.1% increase. The slight discrepancy could be due to imperfect monthly to quarterly conversion, and that HDB might have used some transactions in June for its calculations.

Jeremy Lee
Chief Technology Officer
SRX Property
www.srx.com.sg
1. HDB resale prices decrease in June 2016. There was a decrease of 0.6% in HDB Resale prices in June 2016 compared to that of May 2016. The resale prices of HDB 3 Room and HDB 5 Room Flats decreased by 0.7%, and 0.8% respectively. On the other hand, the resale prices of HDB 4 Room Flats remain unchanged and Executive Flats increased by 0.1%.

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According to the SRX Property Price Index for HDB Resale:

  • Year-on-year, prices have also decreased by 0.6% from June 2015;
  • Prices have declined by 11.5% since the peak in April 2013;

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According to the SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Resale:

  • In June 2016, HDB resale prices of mature estates and non-mature estates decreased by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.
  • Year-on-year, prices in mature estates have increased by 0.2% from June 2015;
  • Year-on-year, prices in non-mature estates have decreased by 1.3% from June 2015.

2. Resale volume stays flat. According to HDB resale data compiled by SRX Property, 1,823 HDB resale flats were sold in June 2016, which is almost the same as the 1,826 transacted units in May 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, resale volume increased by 6.7% compared to 1,709 units resold in June 2015;
  • Resale volume was down by 50.0% compared to its peak of 3,649 units in May 2010.

3. Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (T-O-X) is ZERO in June 2016. According to SRX Property, the median T-O-X for HDB was ZERO in June 2016The median T-O-X for HDB measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.

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  • Overall Median T-O-X was ZERO in June 2016, up by $1,000 compared to the figure in May 2016;
  • Median T-O-X for HDB 3 Room, 4 Room, 5 Room and Executive flats in June 2016 were NEGATIVE $1000, NEGATIVE $500, POSITIVE $1000 and POSITIVE $2,000 respectively.

4. Clementi posts the highest median T-O-X. For HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in June 2016, Clementi reported the highest median TOX of POSITIVE $11,000 followed by POSITIVE $6,000 in Kallang/Whampoa.

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This means that majority of the buyers in these towns have purchased units above the computer-generated market value.

5. Among relatively active towns, Bukit Merah posts the most negative median T-O-X. Among HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in June 2016, the lowest median T-O-X was in Bukit Merah at NEGATIVE $15,500, followed by Bukit Batok at NEGATIVE $10,000.

This means that majority of the buyers in these towns have purchased units below the computer generated market value.



A. Non-Landed Private Residential Rental Market


1. Private rents decrease by 0.6%. According to SRX Property Price Index for Non-landed Private Residential Rentals, rents in May 2016 decreased by 0.6% compared to April 2016. Rentals in Non-Landed Private Residential in CCR, RCR and OCR decreased by 0.8%, 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

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According to SRX Property Price Index for Non-landed Private Rentals:

  • Year-on-year, rents in May 2016 were down by 5.2% from May 2015. In individual sectors, CCR, RCR and OCR posted 1.5%, 8.1% and 6.5% year-on-year decrease in price, respectively.
  • Rent in April 2016 was 16.5% down compared to its peak in January 2013.

2. Rental volume increases by 5.8%. According to SRX Property, an estimated 4.400 Non-landed Private Residential units were rented in May 2016. This represented a 5.8% increase from 4,158 units rented in April 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, rental volume in May 2016 was 14.4% higher than 3,845 units rented in May 2015.

B. HDB Rental Market

1. HDB rents remain the same in May. According to SRX Property Price Index for HDB Rentals, rents in May 2016 is flat compared to April 2016. HDB 3 Rooms rents remained the same while HDB 4 Rooms increased by 0.4%. HDB 5 Rooms and Executive rents posted a 0.1% and 1.5% decrease, respectively.

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According to SRX Property Price Index for HDB Rentals:

  • Year-on-year, rents in May 2016 were down by 3.8% from May 2015.
  • Rents in May 2016 were down 9.7% compared to its peak in August 2013.

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According to SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Rentals in Mature and Non-mature Estates:

  • Rents in Mature Estates decreased by 0.3% while that of Non-Mature Estates increased by 0.4%.
  • Year-on-year, rents of Mature Estates in May 2016 slipped 3.7% from May 2015.
  • Year-on-year, rents of Non-mature Estates in May 2016 dropped 4.0% from May 2015.

2. HDB rental volume increases by 1.5% in April. According to SRX Property, an estimated 2,005 HDB flats were rented in May 2016, a 1.5% increase from 1,975 units rented in April 2016.

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  • Year-on-year, rental volume in May 2016 increased by 2.0% from May 2015.
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